Replication File for "How Threats of Exclusion Mobilize Palestinian Political Participation" 

** Citation **

Weiss, Chagai M., Alexandra A. Siegel, and David Romney. 2021. "How Threats of Exclusion Mobilize Palestinian Political Participation.” The American Journal of Political Science. 

@article{DOC2021,
author = {Chagai M. Weiss, Alexandra A. Siegel, David Romney},
journal = {The American Journal of Political Science},
title = {{How Threats of Exclusion Mobilize Palestinian Political Participation}},
volume = {(forthcoming)},
year = {2021}
}

** Notes **

Set the working directory to the folder where ReadMe.txt is located.

In order for the code to run correctly, all data files should be in a folder titled "data", and there should be two directories, "plots" and "tables", in which the scripts will place the figures and tables for the paper, respectively.

Analysis run using R version 4.0.2

** Data **

 (in the "data" directory)
 
1. social_media_data.csv

-- This dataset contains anonymized Facebook post data aggregated at the weekly level.  
-- Data was produced by authors

2. yishuv_20.xlsx, yishuv_21.xlsx, yishuv_22.xlsx, yishuv_23.xlsx

-- These datasets contain the election outcomes for the 2015, April 2019, September 2019, and 2020 elections.

-- Data was retrieved from the from Israel's National Election Commission, and can be downloaded by election from the following website: https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/Guides/election-committee-history?chapterIndex=6

3. kalpi21.xlsx, kalpi22.xlsx, kalpi23.xlsx

-- These datasets count the number of voting booths in every city/town for the April 2019, September 2019, and 2020 elections.

-- Data was retrieved from the from Israel's National Election Commission, and can be downloaded by election from the following website: https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/Guides/election-committee-history?chapterIndex=6

4. bycode2018.xlsx

-- This dataset contains 2018 data from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, which is merged with the voting and mobilization data for our analyses

-- This data was retrieved from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, and can be downloaded from the following website: https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/pages/2019/%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%91%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C-2018.aspx

5. clean_census.xlsx

-- This dataset contains variables from the 2008 Israeli census, which is merged with the voting and mobilization data for our analyses

-- This data can be retrieved from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics website: https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/subjects/Pages/%D7%9E%D7%A4%D7%A7%D7%93-%D7%94%D7%90%D7%95%D7%9B%D7%9C%D7%95%D7%A1%D7%99%D7%9F-2008.aspx 

6. st_final.RDS

-- This dataset contains the mobilization data from Standing Together, merged with the 2018 Israeli CBS data as well as with the 2008 Israeli census data.

-- This data was provided to the authors from Standing Together for research and publication purposes.

7. israel_map.csv

-- Geocoded dataset to create a map of Israeli localities.

-- This data was provided to the authors from Gidi-Ben Ami (Israeli Ministry of Finance) for research and publication purposes.

8. samoha_clean.xlsx

-- Data from a survey of Arab Israelis/Palestinian Citizens of Israel by Sammy Smooha, used in the appendix to discuss the public opinion of Arab Israelis/PCIs toward potential land transfers of Triangle locations.

-- This data is publicly available on the Israeli Democracy Institute's website: https://dataisrael.idi.org.il/. To retrieve data, select "Advanced Search," then select "Smooha Surveys – University of Haifa", and download the 2017 Arab public opinion survey. 

** R files **

 (in the "code" directory)
If R files are run, they will generate the figures in the paper and online appendix and save them into the "plots" folder. They also  generate the latex tables found in the manuscript and online appendix. 

1. social_media_analysis.R
-- Creates figures displaying the results of the social media analysis. 
-- Output: Figures 2a & 2b 

2. voting_analysis.R
-- Creates figures and tables displaying the results of the voting data analysis and matching
-- Output: Figures 4, A3, A4, A5, A6, A7, A8, A9; Tables 1, A1, A2, A3, A5, A6, A7, A8, A15, A16

3. mobilization_analysis.R
-- Creates figures and tables displaying the results of the mobilization analysis/ 
-- Output: Figures 5, A10; Tables 2, A9, A10, A11, A12, A13, A14

4. create_israel_map.R
-- Creates A map of triangle localities in Israel.
-- Output: Figure A2

5. public_opinion_analysis.R
-- Creates a figure used in the appendix to address triangle/non-triangle public opinion about land transfers 
-- Output: Figure A1
-- Important Notice: This includes Hebrew text. If you are using a PC operating system, this text might appear as gibberish. To address this potential problem, please be sure to reopen the script with suitable encoding. To do so, select File > Reopen with Encoding... > and the select UTF-8 (System default). Doing so should address any problems with the usage of Hebrew text in the code below.



** Plots **

1. figure2a.pdf
-- Figure 2A in the main text reporting the difference in relative salience of Trump and the “Deal of the Century” in public posts on Facebook groups and pages associated with ten Triangle and ten non-Triangle localities.

2. figure2b.pdf
-- Figure 2B in the main text reporting the relative salience of Trump and the “Deal of the Century” in public posts on Facebook groups and pages associated with ten Triangle and ten non-Triangle localities.

3. figure4.pdf
-- Figure 4 in the main text reporting parallel trends of voting analysis.

4. figure5.pdf
-- Figure 5 in the main text reporting monthly counts of registration for the social movement’s listserv in Triangle and non-Triangle localities. 

5. figure_A1.pdf
-- Figure A1 in the appendix reporting survey data on the share of Triangle and non-Triangle locality residents worried about potential land transfers to Palestinian Authority.

6. figure_A2.pdf
-- Figure A2 in the appendix mapping all localities in Israel. Triangle localities shaded in red. 

7. figure_A3.pdf
-- Figure A3 in the appendix mapping the number of voting stations for each locality in the elections under investigation.

8. figure_A4.pdf
-- Figure A4 in the appendix reporting parallel trends (non-Jewish localities), back to 2015.

9. figure_A5.png
-- Figure A5 in the appendix reporting non-parallel trends for the full sample of all localities in Israel.

10. figure_A6.png
-- Figure A6 in the appendix reporting parallel trends of Blue-White party vote share for non-Jewish localities.

11. figure_A7.png
-- Figure A7 in the appendix reporting parallel trends of Arab party vote share for non-Jewish localities.

12. figure_A8.png
-- Figure A8 in the appendix reporting parallel trends of Labor party vote share for non-Jewish localities.

13. figure_A9.png
-- Figure A9 in the appendix reporting parallel trends of Likud party vote share for non-Jewish localities.

14. figure_A10.png
-- Figure A10 in the appendix visualizing results from negative binomial regression models reported in Table A14. 



** Tables **

1. table1.tex
-- Table 1 in the main text. Main voting results.

2. table2.tex
-- Table 2 in the main text. Main mobilization results.

3. tableA1.tex
-- Table A1 in the appendix. Descriptive statistics, non-Jewish localities.

4. tableA2.tex
-- Table A2 in the appendix. Descriptive statistics, all localities.

5. tableA3.tex
-- Table A3 in the appendix. Balance test.

6. tableA5.tex
-- Table A5 in the appendix. Voting results with census covariates. 

7. tableA6.tex
-- Table A6 in the appendix. Voting results omitting Jerusalem.

8. tableA7.tex
-- Table A7 in the appendix. Additional voting results considering party vote share as outcome. 

9. tableA8.tex
-- Table A8 in the appendix. Additional voting results considering party vote share as outcome including locality fixed effects.

10. tableA9.tex
-- Table A9 in the appendix. Descriptive statistics for mobilization analysis (non-Jewish localities).

11. tableA10.tex
-- Table A10 in the appendix. Additional mobilization results with locality-week fixed effects.

12. tableA11.tex
-- Table A11 in the appendix. Additional mobilization results with census covariates. 

13. tableA12.tex
-- Table A12 in the appendix. Additional mobilization results, Logit specification. 

14. tableA13.tex
-- Table A13 in the appendix. Additional mobilization results, focusing on 2019-2020 time period. 

15. tableA14.tex
-- Table A14 in the appendix. Additional mobilization results, negative binomial model specification.

16. tableA15.tex
-- Table A15 in the appendix. Report of matching results for locality selection in social media analysis. 

17. tableA16.tex
-- Table A16 in the appendix. Report of triangle and non-triangle localities select based on matching analysis. 


Data Citations for all datasets not collected by authors:

Israeli Election Commission, "Data for 20-23 National Elections." https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/Guides/election-committee-history?chapterIndex=6

Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, "List of Israeli Localities." https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/pages/2019/%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%91%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C-2018.aspx

Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, "2008 Census." https://www.cbs.gov.il/he/mediarelease/pages/2019/%D7%99%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%91%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%91%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C-2018.aspx

Smooha, Sammy, "Arab Survey 2017, Smooha Surveys – University of Haifa." Israeli Democracy Institute.
Data courtesy of the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute.

Software Statement:

Below is information on the R version and packages used for all of the scripts in the replication folder.

## sessionInfo()

## > sessionInfo()
## R version 4.1.2 (2021-11-01)
## Platform: aarch64-apple-darwin20 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS Monterey 12.1

## Matrix products: default
## BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.1-arm64/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.1-arm64/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib

## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8

## attached base packages:
## [1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

## other attached packages:
##  [1] MatchIt_4.3.2      data.table_1.14.2  dummies_1.5.6      RItools_0.1-17    
##  [5] SparseM_1.81       scales_1.1.1       bucky_1.0.6        sandwich_3.0-1    
##  [9] MASS_7.3-54        Zelig_5.1.7        survival_3.2-13    panelView_1.1.5   
## [13] lubridate_1.8.0    readxl_1.3.1       xlsx_0.6.5         lmtest_0.9-39     
## [17] zoo_1.8-9          multiwayvcov_1.2.3 lfe_2.8-7.1        Matrix_1.3-4      
## [21] naniar_0.6.1       estimatr_0.30.4    readstata13_0.10.0 texreg_1.37.5     
## [25] xtable_1.8-4       stargazer_5.2.2    forcats_0.5.1      stringr_1.4.0     
## [29] dplyr_1.0.7        purrr_0.3.4        readr_2.1.1        tidyr_1.1.4       
## [33] tibble_3.1.6       tidyverse_1.3.1    ggplot2_3.3.5     

## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] VGAM_1.1-5           colorspace_2.0-2     ellipsis_0.3.2      
##  [4] class_7.3-19         visdat_0.5.3         fs_1.5.2            
##  [7] rstudioapi_0.13      listenv_0.8.0        MatrixModels_0.5-0  
## [10] prodlim_2019.11.13   fansi_0.5.0          xml2_1.3.3          
## [13] codetools_0.2-18     splines_4.1.2        Formula_1.2-4       
## [16] jsonlite_1.7.2       pROC_1.18.0          mcmc_0.9-7          
## [19] caret_6.0-90         rJava_1.0-6          broom_0.7.10        
## [22] dbplyr_2.1.1         geepack_1.3-2        compiler_4.1.2      
## [25] httr_1.4.2           backports_1.4.0      assertthat_0.2.1    
## [28] survey_4.1-1         cli_3.1.0            quantreg_5.86       
## [31] tools_4.1.2          coda_0.19-4          gtable_0.3.0        
## [34] glue_1.5.1           reshape2_1.4.4       Rcpp_1.0.7          
## [37] carData_3.0-4        cellranger_1.1.0     vctrs_0.3.8         
## [40] Amelia_1.8.0         nlme_3.1-153         conquer_1.2.1       
## [43] iterators_1.0.13     timeDate_3043.102    gower_0.2.2         
## [46] globals_0.14.0       xlsxjars_0.6.1       rvest_1.0.2         
## [49] lifecycle_1.0.1      future_1.23.0        ipred_0.9-12        
## [52] miscTools_0.6-26     hms_1.1.1            parallel_4.1.2      
## [55] gridExtra_2.3        rpart_4.1-15         stringi_1.7.6       
## [58] foreach_1.5.1        AER_1.2-9            boot_1.3-28         
## [61] lava_1.6.10          matrixStats_0.61.0   rlang_0.4.12        
## [64] pkgconfig_2.0.3      lattice_0.20-45      recipes_0.1.17      
## [67] tidyselect_1.1.1     parallelly_1.29.0    plyr_1.8.6          
## [70] magrittr_2.0.1       R6_2.5.1             generics_0.1.1      
## [73] DBI_1.1.1            pillar_1.6.4         haven_2.4.3         
## [76] foreign_0.8-81       withr_2.4.3          nnet_7.3-16         
## [79] abind_1.4-5          future.apply_1.8.1   modelr_0.1.8        
## [82] crayon_1.4.2         car_3.0-12           utf8_1.2.2          
## [85] tzdb_0.2.0           maxLik_1.5-2         grid_4.1.2          
## [88] ModelMetrics_1.2.2.2 svd_0.5              reprex_2.0.1        
## [91] digest_0.6.29        MCMCpack_1.6-0       stats4_4.1.2        
## [94] munsell_0.5.0        mitools_2.4         
